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July 13, 2011   Email to Friend 

TIGHT SUPPLY SITUATION STILL DRIVING CORN MARKET
July 13, 2011

Because of limited supplies and extreme drought conditions, a large corn crop is needed to meet strong demand.
WASHINGTON, D.C. - In its July crop report released July 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasted higher corn stocks, but American Farm Bureau Federation economists say corn supplies are still limited. It will take a large corn crop to meet strong demand and build reserves to a more stable level, according to the Farm Bureau.

USDA's July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates peg corn stocks at 870 million bushels for the 2011--2012 marketing year--up 175 million bushels from the June stocks estimate.

Todd Davis, AFBF crops economist, said the increase is due mostly to USDA raising its harvested corn acreage estimate to 84.9 million acres in July, up 1.7 million acres from its June forecast.

"The increase in corn acreage from the June report should mean an additional 270 million bushels in corn production this year," Davis explained. "USDA is now forecasting a corn crop of 13.47 million bushels, which we will need to meet very strong demand. Our supply situation is still very tight.

In June, USDA showed a stocks-to-use ratio of five percent, which is just 19 days of supply. USDA raised its stocks-to-use ratio to six percent, which is still only 24 days of supply."

Davis emphasized the tight stocks situation means there is no room for any production problems this year.

"Corn farmers have faced a lot of challenges this year, from late planting to floods to drought, and a lot can happen from now until harvest," he said. "We still have a long way to go to realize a corn crop of 13.47 million bushels this year. There is a very good chance that both the production and stocks estimates will come down in USDA's August report."

Meanwhile, Davis said drought is clearly taking its toll on the U.S. cotton crop. USDA projects that a record 30 percent of the U.S. cotton crop will be abandoned this year because of historic drought conditions, mainly in Texas and Georgia.

"Our hearts go out to Texas cotton farmers," he said. "Texas produces 50 percent of the U.S. cotton crop and about 50 percent of the Texas cotton crop will be abandoned because of the drought. If you farm cotton in Texas without irrigation, you're not going to have a crop to harvest this year."


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